The Bitcoin Price in 25 Years: What Happens When Countries Buy Crypto?

The Bitcoin Price in 25 Years: What Happens When Countries Buy Crypto?

Original in x.com -> https://x.com/ScamPumpToken/status/1867812701935944144

Hey Charles here again, diving deep into the future price of Bitcoin. What could happen to its price in the next decade if countries start treating it like gold in their reserves? Will you buy a Lambo soon, or sell your house and live under a bridge?

Bitcoin: From Cryptic to Crypto-Asset

First off, let's set the stage. Bitcoin started as a rebellious cyberpunk idea, a digital currency aimed at decentralizing financial power from traditional banking systems. Fast forward to today, and it's not just the tech-savvy who are interested; we're seeing major institutions, and even governments, giving Bitcoin a second look. But what does this mean for its price, especially when we toss inflation into the mix?

The Reserve Asset Hypothesis

Imagine this: countries deciding to store some of their wealth not in gold or US dollars, but in Bitcoin. This isn't just a pipe dream. El Salvador has already made Bitcoin legal tender, and there's chatter about other nations considering it for their reserves like Trump for the United States. Here's why this could be a game-changer:

• Scarcity: Bitcoin has a capped supply at 21 million coins. When you have countries with deep pockets wanting to dip into this pool, the basic economics of supply and demand kick in. Less supply, more demand? Price goes up.

• Legitimacy: Nothing says "I'm here to stay" like a government throwing its weight behind you. This could shift Bitcoin from speculative asset to something akin to a digital gold standard.

• Inflation Hedge: With global inflation fears, Bitcoin's fixed supply could make it an attractive hedge, much like gold, but with the added benefit of digital transferability.

Price Predictions with Inflation in the Equation

Now, let's talk numbers, but with inflation factored in. Predicting Bitcoin's price is like trying to forecast the weather a decade out, but let's indulge in some educated speculation:

• VanEck's Vision through the Inflation Lens: Posts on X suggest VanEck believes Bitcoin could be worth $3 million by 2050 if it becomes a global reserve asset. Now, if we assume an average inflation rate of 2% per year over the next 26 years until 2050, we can calculate the future value of money:

• The formula for future value with inflation is: FV=PV×(1+i)n

• where: FV is the future value, PV is the present value ($3 million), i is the inflation rate (0.02 for 2%), n is the number of years (26 for 2024 to 2050).

• Plugging in the numbers: FV=3,000,000×(1+0.02)26

• FV=3,000,000×1.71382 = FV ≈ $5,141,460

So, in future money, with an inflation rate of 2% per year, that $3 million would be worth approximately $5.14 million by 2050.

But, if we use the Core Inflation Rate in the United States, which averaged 3.63% from 1957 until 2024, we can calculate the second future value of money:

• Plugging in the numbers: FV=3,000,000×(1+0.0363)26

• FV=3,000,000×2.45036 = FV ≈ $7,351,080

So, in future money, with a U.S. core inflation rate of 3.63% per year, that $3 million would be worth approximately $7.35 million by 2050.

• Market Dynamics: With large-scale buying from countries, Bitcoin might see less of the wild volatility we're used to. However, inflation might push central banks towards Bitcoin not just for growth but to maintain value, leading to potentially slower but more consistent price increases.

• Economic Shifts: If more countries adopt Bitcoin, we might see a shift in global economic power dynamics. Those with significant Bitcoin reserves could wield new forms of influence, potentially affecting Bitcoin's price as geopolitical chess games play out, all while inflation shapes how we value money.

Challenges on the Horizon

But it's not all rainbows and moon landings; here's where inflation could throw a wrench in the works:

• Regulatory Hurdles: Countries adopting Bitcoin might face resistance from traditional finance sectors. However, big companies like BlackRock are likely to advocate for Bitcoin and against overregulation, recognizing the potential benefits of digital assets in their portfolios. Regulations could still change the landscape, potentially capping or even reducing Bitcoin's price growth, but with influential backers, the dialogue might shift towards more accommodating policies. Inflation adds another layer of complexity, making the regulatory environment even more critical as it influences how Bitcoin is integrated into financial systems.

• Energy Consumption: Bitcoin's mining is indeed energy-intensive, and if countries start to mine or buy Bitcoin in bulk, environmental concerns might push back against this trend. Yet, there's a silver lining; Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as nature-friendly. It helps build up renewable energy by utilizing cheap electricity in areas where it's not otherwise used, effectively balancing out the energy grid and providing economic incentives to expand renewable energy projects. This shift in perspective could mitigate environmental criticisms, especially as inflation potentially makes energy costs a more significant concern, driving miners towards more sustainable and cost-effective energy solutions.

• Security and Sovereignty: Having Bitcoin in reserves means dealing with the risks of digital assets - from hacks to the potential loss of control over monetary policy, especially in an inflationary environment where financial stability becomes paramount.

The Long-Term Play

Looking 15 years ahead, Bitcoin could either be the new norm or a cautionary tale of speculative excess. Here's what might dictate which way it goes when considering inflation:

• Adoption Rates: How quickly and widely Bitcoin gets adopted by countries will directly correlate with its price. Slow, steady adoption might not send it to the moon but could ensure a stable climb, with inflation potentially making this stability more appealing.

• Technological Advances: New blockchain technologies or even changes in Bitcoin's protocol could affect its viability as a reserve asset, particularly if they help manage or mitigate inflation effects.

• Global Financial Health: If traditional currencies face severe crises or high inflation, Bitcoin might look increasingly attractive. Conversely, if the global economy stabilizes with low inflation, the rush towards Bitcoin might slow.

Conclusion: The Crypto Crystal Ball with an Inflation Twist

Predicting Bitcoin's price in 25 years when countries start seeing it as a reserve asset, now with inflation in the mix, is more art than science. With inflation factored in, that $3 million prediction by VanEck could balloon to approximately $7.35 million in future money. We could be looking at a scenario where Bitcoin hits astronomical figures in nominal terms, or we might see a more grounded reality where its real value finds equilibrium in a diversified global reserve system.

However, let's be clear: we cannot predict the future price; we just dream and play around with numbers. But even if these numbers sound unrealistically big, always remember we're thinking in a vast timeframe of 25 years with the potential for worldwide adoption of Bitcoin. The figures could be even higher if we consider the possibility of hyperinflation in major economies like the USA or Europe. Bitcoin serves as an insurance against the dangers posed by inflation, hopefully, an insurance you'll never need.

One thing's for sure, though - it'll be an interesting decade to watch. Whether you're a HODLer or a skeptic, keeping an eye on how governments interact with Bitcoin will give us all a front-row seat to one of the most intriguing financial experiments of our time, especially under the shadow of inflation. Order your Lambo now.

So, are you ready for this crypto ride? Let's see where the next 25 years take us. Remember, in crypto, the only constant is change. Stay curious, stay informed, and perhaps, stay invested.

Best regards,Charles Bergoglio - CEO ScamPump Token